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A Modest Proposal


Our national Coronavirus plague, which some dour, unscientific critics insist is no more deadly than the flu, has deposited in the hands of governors here in the Northeast an administrative power that might well bring a blush to the cheek of Gore Vidal’s Caligula. Asked by a reporter whether he objected to the seemingly endless senatorial reign of Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, Vidal quipped – no, not at all, because every state should have in it at least one Caligula.

Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York is the most visible and outspoken Vidalian Caligula in a compact of similarly endowed governors that includes Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

A recent Stanford University antibody study estimates that the world fatality rate among those infected with Coronavirus is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, which presents a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher. It was the fanciful WHO estimates that spurred sequestration and business shutdown policies.

Nearly one-third of all deaths in the United States have occurred in New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic. In New York State, two-thirds of fatally infected patients were over 70 years old; more than 95 percent were over 50 years old; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of Coronavirus deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness, according to the antibody study.

“If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition,” The Hill commented, “your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness" from Coronavirus.

When Coronavirus was raging like a brush fire through New York’s nursing homes, Cuomo did not direct the bulk of his remediation efforts there. The same is true in Connecticut. We knew right from the get-go that Coronavirus was especially deadly to people over 65 and those whose immune systems had been compromised. Here in Connecticut, we were able very early on to identify Coronavirus “hot spots,” such as Fairfield County (confirmed cases 13,236, deaths 1,034), New Haven (confirmed cases 9,209, deaths 701), and Hartford (confirmed cases 7,263, deaths 909).

A proportional response that would have taken into account the severity of Coronavirus in different sections of Connecticut was rejected from the outset by governors such as Lamont and Cuomo – because they were governors of states, not chief executives of municipalities. Similarly,  President Donald Trump was the chief executive of the nation, not the states. If the doctrine of subsidiarity, the first casualty of authoritative, top-down governance, had held sway in Connecticut, schools in low-impact municipalities such as Windham County (confirmed cases 270, deaths 7) might have remained open, and a rational shutdown regimen would have been far less devastating to business there and elsewhere in the state.


Fully 60 per percent, more than half, of Coronavirus deaths in Connecticut occurred in nursing homes. The CEO of one Connecticut facility especially hard hit, Kimberly Hall North in Windsor, we know from recent news accounts, had begged relevant state agencies in Connecticut for rapid assistance. The agency heads had ears but they heard not, eyes but they saw not. Why were they deaf, blind and unprepared for the deadly assault on nursing homes, some of which quickly became funeral homes?

Screwing in his scientific eye loop and pouring over recent data, Cuomo discovered, to his astonishment, that 66 percent of New Yorkers admitted to hospitals had contracted Coronavirus while sequestered at home.

The number suggests that sequestration may not be a Coronavirus silver bullet. Even as the governors of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania were requiring their citizens to wear face masks – but not in churches they had closed – face masks were becoming as difficult to procure as toilet paper. Some of the home-fashioned masks and bandannas  seen while shopping at grocery stores are nearly useless, and there seems to be little agreement among scientists whether face masks are a help or a hindrance.

Early figures from scientists concerning the number of people who had been infected by Coronavirus or those who died “from complications arising from Coronavirus” were, to put it baldly, laughably incorrect, as were calculations of the number of hospital beds needed in New York City to wage  war on the plague. Historian Victor Davis Hanson punctured the grosser projections of credited scientists when he said that not only did we not know the denominator in our Coronavirus calculations, we did not know the numerator either.

Ponder this: a woman crossing a street is hit and killed by a hearse carrying the body of 91 year-old resident of a nursing home who has died, it has been determined, “of complications arising from Coronavirus.” Later, it is discovered that the woman hit by the hearse had been exposed to Coronavirus. Did the second corpse die “from complications arising from Coronavirus, or did she die WITH rather than OF Coronavirus?”

This Coronavirus business has been a messy affair, and some of the mess has been intentionally generated. Politicians know there is a level of confusion at which the average citizen simply stops paying attention. That is why political skulduggery lives, like a maggot infestation, in the intercesses of complexity. The antidote to this bewildering complexity is -- large doses of modesty. The now waning, one hopes, Coronavirus infestation should make us far more modest and less arrogant than we have been. Always know more than you say, and never say more than you know has always been good advice, in and out of season, for data experts, medical professionals, politicians and journalists.

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