Here is the bottom line of a serious and splendid analysis of our economic paralysis done by Reid Holloway, a consultant, specializing in strategic development and a hedge manager for private clients who developed The RLH Volatility Model, a proprietary mathematical model for assessing and managing equity portfolio risk, and Robert Eramo an actuarial genius, author of Money, Credit and Federal Reserve Policy Changes”:
“We believe there is the possibility we may even have a “soft landing,” but that doesn’t mean the crosswinds approaching the runway won’t be without some turbulence. If during this time frame the congress manages to come together on a plan for spending and tax reform—even if that includes a protracted government shutdown—we could resume the trajectory of slow economic growth we’ve been on for some time, with probable implications of flattening unemployment-rate trends at about the levels we’re experiencing now.”
The report, well worth consulting, may be found at Minyanville.
I am grateful to Mr. Holloway for calling it to my attention.